Testicular cancer incidence to rise by 25% by 2025 in Europe? Model-based predictions in 40 countries using population-based registry data

摘要

Background Testicular cancer mainly affects White Caucasian populations, accounts for 1% of all male cancers, and is frequently the most common malignancy among young adult men. In light of the escalating rates of testicular cancer incidence in Europe, and in support of future planning to ensure optimal care of patients with what can be a curable disease, we predict the future burden in 40 European countries around 2025. Methods Current observed trends were extrapolated with the NORDPRED model to estimate the future burden of testicular cancer in the context of changes in risk versus changes in demographics. Findings Despite substantial heterogeneity in the rates, the vast majority of European countries will see an increasing burden over the next two decades. We estimate there will be 23,000 new cases of testicular cancer annually in Europe by 2025, a rise of 24% from 2005. Some of the most rapid increases in testicular cancer are observed in Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and Spain, and a transition is underway, whereby recent attenuations and declines in rates in certain high-risk countries in Northern Europe contrast with the increasing trends and escalating burden in Southern Europe. According to our estimates for 2025, around one in 100 men will be diagnosed with the disease annually in the highest risk countries of Europe (Croatia, Slovenia and Norway). Interpretation Elucidating the key determinants of testicular cancer and the equitable provision of optimal care for patients across Europe are priorities given the steady rise in the number of patients by 2025, and an absence of primary prevention opportunities. Funding None.