Deflation and monetary policy in a historical perspective: remembering the past or being condemned to repeat it?

摘要

Inflation is currently low and stable in industrialized countries, but might deflation replace inflation as a major policy concern? We present a broad cross-country historical study of deflation over the past two centuries in order to shed light on current polity challenges. In the light of the relevant theoretical approaches, we empirically characterize 'good, bad and ugly' deflations, assess similarities between the current low-inflation environment and that of the gold standard period, and discuss lessons from the historical record as to policies to escape undesirable deflation and the relative merits of interest rate and monetary instruments.