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Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium

机译:通货膨胀风险和通货膨胀风险溢价

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This article starts by discussing the concept of 'inflation hedging' and provides estimates of 'inflation betas' for standard bond and well-diversified equity indices for over 45 countries. We show that such standard securities are poor inflation hedges. Expanding the menu of assets to Treasury bills, foreign bonds, real estate and gold improves matters but inflation risk remains difficult to hedge. We then describe how state-of-the-art term structure research has tried to uncover estimates of the inflation risk premium, the compensation for bearing inflation risk. Most studies, including very recent ones that actually use inflation-linked bonds and information in surveys to gauge inflation expectations, find the inflation risk premium to be sizeable and to substantially vary through time. This implies that governments should normally lower their financing costs through the issuance of index-linked bonds, at host in an ex ante sense. Our findings thus indicate a potentially important role for inflation index linked bonds. We briefly discuss the pros and cons of such bonds, focusing the discus-sion mostly on the situation in the United States, which started to issue Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) in 1997. We argue that it is hard to negate the benefits of such securities for all relevant parties, unless the market in which they trade is highly deficient, which was actually the case in its early years in the United States.
机译:本文首先讨论“通胀对冲”的概念,并提供超过45个国家/地区的标准债券和多样化股票指数的“通胀beta”估计值。我们证明这种标准证券是不良的通胀对冲。将资产范围扩展到国库券,外国债券,房地产和黄金可以改善问题,但通货膨胀风险仍然难以对冲。然后,我们将描述最先进的期限结构研究如何试图揭示通货膨胀风险溢价(承担通货膨胀风险的补偿)的估计。大多数研究,包括最近的实际使用通胀挂钩债券和调查中的信息来衡量通胀预期的研究,都发现通胀风险溢价是相当大的,并且会随时间变化很大。这意味着政府通常应事先从东道国通过发行指数挂钩债券来降低其融资成本。因此,我们的发现表明,通货膨胀指数挂钩债券具有潜在的重要作用。我们简要讨论了此类债券的利弊,主要将讨论重点放在美国的情况上。美国于1997年开始发行美国国债通货保护债券(TIPS)。我们认为很难否定美国国债的收益。除非所有证券交易市场高度短缺,否则此类证券对所有相关方都是如此。

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