Mesothelioma trends in the Republic of Ireland: an epidemiologic study in the context of the causal pathway.

摘要

This study utilized pleural cancer deaths (n = 125) as a surrogate measure for mesothelioma. The existing mesothelioma incidence data (n = 77) were also analysed. Annual-Percent-Change (APC) in age-adjusted rates (European standard population) was estimated. The pleural cancer mortality rates showed an annual rise of 8.9% (95% CI: 7.1%, 10.8%) from 1979 to 1998 (p < 0.0001), and this was steeper from 1990 onwards, especially among the older cohorts (10.9%). The birth-cohorts of 1925-1935 appear to be suffering the highest risk of pleural cancer deaths. The mesothelioma incidence also showed an annual increase of 14.4% (95% CI: -22.7%, 51.4%) from 1994 to 1998 (p = 0.08). The majority of the mesothelioma cases were involved in asbestos-related trades. Seventy (95% CI: 49,101) cases of pleural cancer deaths are predicted for the years 2007-2008, as opposed to 29 cases observed a decade ago in the years 1997-1998. The current APC (8.9%) is also predicted to rise to 10.5% (95% CI: 7.3%, 15.0%) in 2007-2008. These findings merit close attention for future public-health policies in line with EC directive of banning the indiscriminate use of 'all' forms of asbestos in the Republic of Ireland as early as possible.