Plurality voting: The statistical laws of democracy in Brazil

摘要

We explore the statistical laws behind the plurality voting system by investigating the election results for the mayor in Brazil in 2004. Our analysis indicate that the vote partition among mayor candidates of the same city tends to be "polarized" between two candidates, a phenomenon that can be closely described by means of a simple fragmentation model. Complex concepts like "government continuity" and "useful vote" can be identified and even statistically quantified through our approach.