Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

摘要

The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979-2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis products. Mean 80-m wind speeds are consistently higher over China Seas and the ocean areas than over land, and inside China high winds are found in areas of Inner Mongolia and the Tibetan Plateau. There is a considerable seasonal variability that reflects primarily the influence of East and Southeast Asia Monsoon with generally higher speeds in winter followed by summer, and weaker winds in autumn, followed by spring. There is also a strong interannual variability, and regions of larger amplitude of variability coincide with regions of higher mean winds. A decreasing trend, dominated by a sharp decline beginning in 2005, is seen across China and the surrounding seas in summer and autumn, and the summer trends over land and over ocean appear to be related respectively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the East Asian summer monsoon. Trends are not consistent across the region in spring and winter, however, with positive trends over some areas in northeastern and northwestern China, Mongolia and tropical oceans whereas negative trends in other regions. Nearly all areas of China experience mean annual 80-m wind speed less than 6.9ms(-1) (wind power classes of 1-2) except for some areas of Inner Mongolia where mean annual 80-m wind speeds exceed 6.9ms(-1) (Classes 3 or higher, suitable for wind energy development). China Seas and ocean areas generally fall in Class 3 or above, with the Taiwan and Luzon Straights reaching the highest Class 7.