A question of capacity: Taking advantage of lumber price spike no simple matter

摘要

The long, gradual recovery of the lumber market that has been underway since the fall of 2011 accelerated unexpectedly before Christmas, as prices shot up $50/thousand over four weeks. Peaks, like troughs, are usually short-term phenomena, and no doubt recent highs will get a good cropping. Even so, sawmill owners are finally enjoying prices they haven't experienced for nearly a decade. The recovery is being driven primarily by improving conditions in the U.S. housing market. The backlog of unsold homes is back to normal, prices are on the rise with bidding wars returning to some hot regions, and there are more than 800,000 overall housing starts. Although that number is still a far cry from the 1.5 million new homes considered necessary just to meet new demand and replace aging stock, it is well above the 500,000-600,000 level at which new house construction has been stalled in the U.S. for several years.