FOREIGN TRADE OF UKRAINE IN NOVEMBER 2002

摘要

Tendency of seasonal (winter) depression of economic activities in developed countries that influenced foreign economic activities of Ukraine became noticeable in November 2002. This fact would further influence export operations with metal articles and general balance of foreign trade. World political and economic situation in November can be characterized as stable indefiniteness. That is why external demand for Ukrainian goods in the nearest future does not have a clear positive tendency. Dynamics of leading trade partners of Ukraine economic growth remains multivalued. It deals foremost with Russia, because local producers would like to make use of internal demand growth by putting forward protective initiatives. Negative prospectives of EURO zone economic growth, especially in Germany, as well as contradictory information on state of the USA economy are also not encouraging. Markets of Southern-Eastern Asia countries, the Middle East and particularly China as a country which practically does not depend upon economic situation in the European Union countries, the USA, and Japan, are promising for foreign trade of Ukraine. Development of export bound to the countries of Africa is also prospective while diversifying export of Ukraine in conditions of world economy slow rates of development. As previously, there are hopes that export would become active in February - March 2003 with possible gradual recovery of demand on world markets. For example, as said by heads of Ukrainian metallurgical plants, metallurgy is mainly secured with export orders for the first quarter of 2003. The following factors would condition dynamics of import volumes: rate of EURO to US dollar, rate of Ukrainian Hrywnia to these currencies, and level of positive expectations regarding political and economic situation in the country. Last factors mostly depend on structure and volume of Ukrainian Budget for 2003. Augmentation of internal demand for domestically manufactured output would be connected with perspective general economic tendencies, those eventually being promoted by activities of the new Government of Ukraine. It is necessary to take into consideration that the highest rates of economic growth are forecasted in Asian and Pacific Ocean region (6.1 percent), Southern-Eastern Asia (5.4 percent), as well as Central, Eastern Europe and Middle Asia (3.4 percent).