Operative versus Nonoperative Management of Acute Achilles Tendon Rupture: Expected-Value Decision Analysis.

摘要

BACKGROUND: The optimal management strategy for acute Achilles tendon rupture is controversial. PURPOSE: To determine the optimal management by using expected-value decision analysis. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Outcome probabilities were determined from a systematic literature review, and patient-derived utility values were obtained from a visual analog scale questionnaire. A decision tree was constructed, and fold-back analysis was used to determine optimal treatment. Sensitivity analyses were used to determine the effect of varying outcome probabilities and utilities on decision-making. RESULTS: Outcome probabilities (expressed as operative; nonoperative) were as follows: well (0.762; 0.846), rerupture (0.022; 0.121), major complication (0.030; 0.025), moderate complication (0.075; 0.003), and mild complication (0.111; 0.005). Outcome utility values were well operative (7.9), well nonoperative (7.0), rerupture (2.6), major complication (1.0), moderate complication (3.5), and mild complication (4.7). Fold-back analysis revealed operative treatment as the optimal management strategy (6.89 versus 6.30). Threshold values were determined for the probability of a moderate complication from operative treatment (0.21) and the utility of rerupture (6.8). CONCLUSIONS: Operative management was the optimal strategy, given the outcome probabilities and patient utilities we studied. Nonoperative management was favored by increasing rates of operative complications; operative, by decreasing utility of rerupture. We advocate a model of doctor-patient shared decision-making in which both outcome probabilities and patient preferences are considered.