Modelling of the effects of land use changes on flood hydrograph in a small catchment of the Plaskowicka, southern part of Warsaw, Poland

摘要

This study concerns the influence of urbanized trend affected on the flood hydrograph in a small catchment in Warsaw. Based on recorded events a selected procedure for simulation rainfall-runoff process has been accepted for flood estimation. The SoilConservation Services Curve Number method (SCS-CN) and empirical formulae for Nash model parameters, developed by Rao at al. were used to analyze the nine selected events from 2007 to 2009. The analysis confirmed usefulness of the selected procedure, implicated in a home developed computer program, for estimating flood hydrographs as responses of the small urban catchment to heavy rainfall events. Flood hydrographs were estimated for three various stages of land use. The results demonstrate that the peak flood flow would increase over eight times due to urbanisation of the catchment.