Numerical study of performance of two lightning prediction methods based on: Lightning Potential Index (LPI) and electric POTential difference (POT) over Tehran area

摘要

The electric POTential difference (POT) and the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) performance in predicting the lightning activity is investigated and the probable relationship between them is examined. These two indices have a similar dependency on microphysical variables such as ice, graupel mixing ratios, and also updraft characteristics within the cloud. Regardless of this similarity, the LPI directly calculated from WRF model is a more favorable parameter for predicting the lightning events in comparison with the POT, which requires an extra package (ELEC) model. Ten years' available data over the Tehran area were reviewed and four thundercloud cases with distinct characteristics (CAPE, time-frequency, intensity) were selected. In order to acquire the associated physical properties, four simulations have been done using the WRF-ELEC model, which is initialized with ERA-Interim data.