Qatar Poised To Move to Center Stage

摘要

Qatar’s planned 48 million ton per year LNG expansion has entered a critical stage. It is hard to overstate the importance of the megaproject in defining global LNG balances in the next decade. Phase 1 of Doha’s expansion will make up a massive 35% of the meager $100 billion greenfield upstream investment approvals estimated in 2021, says consultancy Rystad Energy. The opening will be a key litmus test of post-Covid investor appetite and offer a vital lifeline to some in the beleaguered oil service sector. Work on the 32 million ton/yr Phase 1 expansion, which will see Qatari LNG capacity boosted to 110 million tons/yr, is progressing. But big questions remain over the shape and pace of the development. Foremost is the issue of which equity partners, if any, will be selected. Last year, Doha short-listed six firms as lead partners — Exxon Mobil, Total, Royal Dutch Shell, ConocoPhillips, Chevron and Eni (PIW Nov.29’19). All but Chevron and Eni have interests in Qatar’s existing 78 million tons/yr of capacity. But Doha has always stressed that is prepared to go it alone if bids aren’t sufficiently attractive. “There is a good chance QP (Qatar Petroleum) fast tracks the project” given the significant discounts likely to be on offer from cash-strapped service firms desperate for work, argues senior Rystad analyst Aditya Saraswat. Recent delays have pushed start-up to 2025, but “that is a moving target. I would not pin down a date,” a Doha-based source tells Energy Intelligence.