Canadian Pipeline Fight Flags Social License Risks

摘要

The unlikely alliance between Canada’s oil sands industry and Alberta’s progressive provincial government is fraying, but not because either side is reneging. Several oil sands producers signed onto Alberta’s plans to cap carbon dioxide emissions, phase out coal-fired power plants and slap a carbon tax on virtually all economic activity in the province. In exchange, the oil industry hoped to preserve its social license to construct desperately needed crude export pipelines to the US and to Canada’s East and West Coasts. But two years have passed, and new lines remain as elusive as ever. That’s because the province’s path to cleaning up the dirty reputation of its oil sands has failed to resonate with other provinces, some neighboring US states — and perhaps even Ottawa (PIW Mar.14’16). “It’s like a teenager who has done all the family chores but still can’t get the keys to the family car,” a Calgary source with strong industry ties laments to PIW. Alberta’s climate change plan caps annual emissions at 100 megatons of carbon dioxide — up from current emissions of 70 megatons. The onus is on the oil industry to innovate and invest in new technologies to curb emissions while still growing output. Pipeline capacity is meanwhile sufficient for now, but faces a potential squeeze in the coming years as oil sands output drives Canadian production from 4 million barrels per day in 2016 to 5.7 million b/d by 2040 (PIW Oct.17’16).