RWE warns on European gas demand

摘要

Low carbon heating systems and a huge growth in renewables will continue to drive down northwest European(NWE)gas demand,which has been structurally decreasing since the financial crisis,Andree Stracke,chief commercial officer at the supply and trading arm of German utility RWE,told the Flame gas conference in Amsterdam in May.The RWE base case for NWE gas demand is 227bn m~3/yr in 2030,down from 267bn m~3/yr in 2018 and from 309bn m~3/yr in 2010.Its high case scenario is 275bn m~3/yr,but its low case is just 178bn m~3/yr.Substitution in the retail sector will drive the highest demand decrease.Electric heat pumps are a”real killer”,says Stracke,along with wood pellets and better insulation.Residential and commercial gas demand peaked as far back as 2003 and has trended slightly lower ever since.RWE predicts a 21pc decrease from 2018 levels by 2030-rising to 30pc in a high-efficiency,low-demand scenario-which is”really significant”as heating is the bulk of overall demand.