Using historical context to identify confounders, mechanisms and modifiers in aggregate level studies of the relationship between alcohol consumption and violent crime

摘要

The paper by Bye (this issue [1]), is a well-conducted study that both covers an impressive length of time and controls systematically for factors hypothesized previously as accounting for the aggregate-level relationship between overall alcohol consumption and violent crime. The introduction provides a reasonable rationale as to why divorce, marriage, fertility, unemployment, gross national product (GNP), public assistance and percentage of population aged 15-2 5 years might confound the link between alcohol consumption and violent crime. The problem is that none of the factors was found to be related to changes over time in both alcohol consumption and violent crime in Norway. That is, despite the rationale, these factors did not confound the relationship between alcohol consumption and violence-which leaves the question open as to whether important confounders were actually controlled.