Swedish surgical outcomes study (SweSOS) An observational study on 30-day and 1-year mortality after surgery

摘要

BACKGROUNDThe European Surgical Outcomes Study (EuSOS) revealed large variations in outcomes among countries. In-hospital mortality and ICU admission rates in Sweden were low, going against the assumption that access to ICU improves outcome. Long-term mortality was not reported in EuSOS and is generally poorly described in the current literature.OBJECTIVETo describe the characteristics of the Swedish subset of EuSOS and identify predictors of short and long-term mortality after surgery.DESIGNAn observational cohort study.SETTINGSix universities and two regional hospitals in Sweden.PATIENTSA cohort of 1314 adult patients scheduled for surgery between 4 April and 11 April 2011.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES30-day and 1-year mortality.RESULTSA total of 303 patients were lost to follow-up, leaving 1011 for analysis; 69% of patients were classified as American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status 1 or 2, and 68% of surgical procedures were elective. The median length of stay in postanaesthesia care units (PACUs) was 175min (interquartile range 110-270); 6.6% of patients had PACU length of stay of more than 12h and 3.6% of patients were admitted to the ICU postoperatively. Thirty-day mortality rate was 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-2.6] and 8.5% (CI 6.8-10.2) at 1 year (n=18 and 86). The risk of death was higher than in an age and sex-matched population after 30 days (standardised mortality ratio 10.0, CI 5.9-15.8), and remained high after 1 year (standardised mortality ratio 3.9, CI 3.1-4.8). Factors predictive of 30-day mortality were age, American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status, number of comorbidities, urgency of surgery and ICU admission. For 1-year mortality, age, number of comorbidities and urgency of surgery were independently predictive. ICU admission and long stay in PACU were not significant predictors of long-term mortality.CONCLUSIONMortality rate increased almost five-fold at 1 year compared with 30-day mortality after surgery, demonstrating a significantly sustained long-term risk of death in this surgical population. In Sweden, factors associated with long-term postoperative mortality were age, number of comorbidities and surgical urgency.