Risk assessment within agricultural production: soil conservation strategies and its environmental and economic aspects - a case study for Bavaria

摘要

The definition of risk within agricultural production systems is summarised and an overview of different sources of risks in agriculture is provided. Focusing on risks associated with the soil, the influencing factors are analysed in detail. From this, a simple methodology for a probabilistic modelling approach to evaluate the effect of the different cropping tillage system and soil conservation practices is developed concerning environmental as well as economic aspects. Selected uncertainty factors,such as rainfall and crop yields are simulated using the program @RJSK. With this method, the possible future performance of various combinations of crop and management practice under given environmental conditions can be simulated and compared, considering not only soil erosion control but also increasing farmers' income.