Quantifying spatiotemporal influences of climate index on seasonal extreme precipitation based on hierarchical Bayesian method

Xiao Mingzhong

摘要

Abstract >Quantifying spatiotemporal influence of climate index on extreme precipitation will help to better understand the variability of extreme precipitation. The extreme precipitation is usually influenced by different climate indices, and mutual offset is unavoidable to occur, thus the rotated empirical orthogonal function was used to identify the different influences of climate indices on extreme precipitation in space and time. The variation of extreme precipitation in data‐scarce region is also concerned, hence, an improved spatiotemporal regional frequency analysis model was further developed, therein the identified spatiotemporal influences of climate indices on extreme precipitation were quantified using Bayesian hierarchical method. In this study, the in situ seasonal maximum one‐day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent seasonal precipitation extremes from 1957 to 2010 in the Poyang Lake basin, and spatiotemporal influences of El Ni?o‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on seasonal Rx1day were quantified. Results indicated that the seasonal Rx1day was influenced by different climate indices in the Poyang Lake basin, ENSO tends to affect spring and autumn Rx1day, IOD tends to affect summer Rx1day, and NAO tends to affect spring and winter Rx1day. The response of extreme precipitation on climate index is varied in different regions, and this was well distinguished and verified, such as negative ENSO (in the same year) events tends to cause spring Rx1day slight decrease in the southern part of the basin while increase about 15% in the northern part with center around the Poyang lake. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >量化气候指数对极端降水量的时空影响将有助于更好地了解极端沉淀的可变性。极端沉淀通常受到不同气候指标的影响，并且互偏移是不可避免的，因此旋转经验正交功能用于识别气候指标对空间和时间极端降水的不同影响。数据稀缺区域中极端沉淀的变化也涉及，因此进一步开发了一种改进的时空区域频率分析模型，其中使用贝叶斯分层方法量化了气候指标对极端沉淀的鉴定的时空影响。在这项研究中，原位季节性最大降水量（RX1Day）用于代表鄱阳湖盆地1957年至2010年的季节降水量，以及EL NI的时尚影响（ENSO），北方大西洋振荡（NAO）和印度洋偶极（IOD）在季节性rx1day上量化。结果表明，季节性rx1day受鄱阳湖盆地不同气候指标的影响，恩索倾向于影响春秋的rx1day，Iod往往会影响夏天的rx1day，诺往往会影响春天和冬天的rx1day。极端降水对气候指数的反应在不同的地区各种各样地变化，这是良好的区别和验证，例如负面的enso（同年）事件倾向于引起弹簧RX1day在盆地南部的略微下降，同时增加北部15％，鄱阳湖周围的中心。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2020年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共12页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xiao Mingzhong&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Xiao Mingzhong;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>State Key Laboratory of Hydrology‐Water Resources and Hydraulic EngineeringHohai UniversityNanjing China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bayesian&option=203" rel="nofollow">Bayesian;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate index&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate index;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme precipitation&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme precipitation;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=frequency analysis&option=203" rel="nofollow">frequency analysis;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Poyang Lake basin&option=203" rel="nofollow">Poyang Lake basin;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：贝叶斯;气候指数;极端降水;频率分析;鄱阳湖盆地; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 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