ASSESSING THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF EAST AFRICAN AND WEST PACIFIC WARMING TO THE 2014 BOREAL SPRING EAST AFRICAN DROUGHT

摘要

During April-June of 2014 some areas of East Africa (EA) experienced substantial rainfall deficits (Funk et al. 2014) and warm land surface temperatures (Supplemental Fig. S16.1). Here, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC; Liang et al.1994; Nijssen et al. 1997), we evaluate and contrast the potential influence of (i) warm East African air temperatures and (ii) rainfall reductions associated with a more intense West Pacific Index (WPI; Funk et al. 2014). The WPI is a standardized version of the West Pacific Gradient (Hoell and Funk 2013a); here defined as the standardized difference between the Nino 4 and West Pacific (WP; 10°S-10°N, 110°-150°E) SST (Funk et al. 2014): WPI = Z(Z(Nino 4) - Z(WP)), where Z() denotes standardization.