BLOG: Turkey crisis: implications for polyolefins and global economy

摘要

LONDON (ICIS)--Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections. Turkey is a pivotal market for global polyolefins. Its polyethylene imports are big because of lack of local investment and its polypropylene imports even bigger. So you have to consider the first, second and third order effects of the collapse of the lira. First comes the risk that Turkish buyers will not be able to afford enough dollars to complete the import volumes they have already committed to buy. Next comes the potential for much lower demand growth, and so disappointing imports, than had been expected in 2018. And the third and final implication is much broader – how the Turkish crisis could lead to a broader sustained collapse in emerging market currencies that triggers major debt defaults. Then we could find ourselves in a full-scale global economic crisis. Or, hopefully, the crisis will blow over.