Diversity of ENSO Events Unified by Convective Threshold Sea Surface Temperature: A Nonlinear ENSO Index

Williams Ian N.; Patricola Christina M.

摘要

Abstract > We show that the well‐known failure of any single index to capture the diversity and extremes of El Ni?o‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results from the inability of existing indices to uniquely characterize the average longitude of deep convection in the Walker Circulation. We present a simple sea surface temperature (SST)‐based index of this longitude that compactly characterizes the different spatial patterns, or flavors of observed and projected ENSO events. It recovers the familiar global responses of temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclones to ENSO and identifies historical extreme El Ni?o events. Despite its simplicity, the new longitude index describes the nonlinear relationship between the first two principal components of SST, and unlike previous indices, accounts for background SST changes associated with the seasonal cycle and climate change. The index reveals that extreme El Ni?o, El Ni?o Modoki, and La Ni?a events are projected to become more frequent in the future at the expense of neutral ENSO conditions. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >我们显示任何单一索引的众所周知的失败捕获多样性和极端EL NI？O-Southern振荡（ENSO）导致现有指数的无法唯一地表征沃克循环中深度对流的平均经度。我们呈现了一种简单的海面温度（SST），基于这种经度的指数，该经度紧凑地表征了观察和预测的ENSO事件的不同空间模式，或味道</ i>。它恢复了温度，降水和热带气旋的熟悉的全球反应，并识别历史极端El Ni？O.事件。尽管其简单性，但新的经度索引描述了SST的前两个主要组成部分之间的非线性关系，并且与以前的指数不同，占与季节性周期和气候变化相关的背景SST变化。该指数揭示了极端的El Ni？O，El Ni？O Modoki和La Ni？将来的事件预计将来在中立的enso条件下牺牲了更频繁。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第17期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Williams Ian N.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Williams Ian N.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Patricola Christina M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Patricola Christina M.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Climate and Ecosystem Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley CA USA;</p> <p>Climate and Ecosystem Sciences DivisionLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley CA USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ENSO diversity&option=203" rel="nofollow">ENSO diversity;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme El Ni?o&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme El Ni?o;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Modoki&option=203" rel="nofollow">Modoki;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=precipitation teleconnection&option=203" rel="nofollow">precipitation teleconnection;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=convective threshold&option=203" rel="nofollow">convective threshold;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=ENSO index&option=203" rel="nofollow">ENSO index;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：e xt leme e l;氯jie r和ty？哦;对不起;p chapi chi-kun c chion;konpo c ch th chapi ld;eni; 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</ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061203197613.html">利用ENSO综合指标进行厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜等级划分及径流预测方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN106250699B </span> <span> . 2019.02.19</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120108744974.html">ENSO综合指标及其径流预测方法</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN106250699A </span> <span> . 2016-12-21</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130400123431.html">Inspection method and apparatus for testing cap sealing of container that involves calculating surface temperature of temperature sensor and comparing difference between measured temperature and the calculated temperature with threshold for correcting thermal image data</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US10677681B2 </span> <span> . 2020.06.09</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130400678395.html">System and method for preventing object from being left in the rear seat using temperature sensor and pressure sensor for each seat</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  KR20200113655A </span> <span> . 2020-10-07</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用用于每个座椅的温度传感器和压力传感器来防止物体留在后座中的系统和方法 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130434118935.html">Surface sensor e.g. temperature sensor, for air conditioning system of motor vehicle, has seal that is provided for sealing surrounding of sensing unit and is at a distance from all the sides of sensing unit</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  DE102006003602A1 </span> <span> . 2007-07-26</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> 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