Fuzzy risk prediction of roof fall and rib spalling: based on FFTA-DFCE and risk matrix methods

摘要

The working conditions of underground mining are complex and variable, and roof fall and rib spalling are one of the main types of accidents that can occur. Building an integrated model to evaluate the risk of roof fall and rib spalling is the foundation of mine safety. On the basis of the inherent attributes of event risk, the fuzzy evaluation set and probability of basic events are obtained by using the fuzzy fault tree analysis method based on the sample's fuzzy information. Subsequently, the likelihood of roof fall and rib spalling is determined. Consequence severity data are obtained by using the dynamic fuzzy logic method, and the consequence severity grade of roof fall and rib spalling is evaluated via the dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The event risk level is determined by the risk matrix method. Roof fall and rib spalling in a non-coal mine is analyzed and evaluated by using fuzzy fault tree analysis and dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The weak links in the operation of an underground mine are identified by fuzzy fault tree analysis as "mining process, roof management, support and reinforcement." Then, the risk development trend is determined by the dynamic fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The risk matrix method is integrated to determine whether the risk level of the mine is "high risk, unacceptable" and expected to deteriorate in the future. The results show the validity and feasibility of the risk analysis and prediction model for roof fall and rib spalling.