Looking back over the past two decades on the nexus between air pollution, energy consumption, and agricultural productivity in China: a qualitative analysis based on the ARDL bounds testing model

摘要

ncreasing population and food demand has led to steadily declining resources as a result of over-exploitation and fossil fuel consumption that cause air contamination and reduce soil fertility. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the correlation between air pollution, energy consumption, and the contribution of agriculture to national GDP. Secondary study data covering two decades were collected from different sources, and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing model was employed to determine long-run and short-run correlations. First, the unit root test was used to determine the stationarity of variables, and results showed that variables were integrated at level, ARDL co-integration equation estimation, which rejected the null hypothesis at less than 5% significance level. Further, based on the results of the ARDL bounds testing model, F-statistic values exceeded the upper bound value. This entire model was adjusted at a speed of-2.364 towards long-run equilibrium. In addition, CUSUM test and CUSUMSQ test results confirmed the goodness of fit of this model. In light of the resulting policy implications, the Chinese government may consider measures to improve the agricultural industry to meet the food demand for the fast-growing population while maintaining a healthy environment and safeguarding the available limited resources for future generations.