OUTLOOK FOR WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND USE: GLOBAL COTTON MILL USE IS DECLINING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A DECADE

摘要

World cotton production and consumption are both projected to decline in 2008/09. The expected 6% decrease in production is caused mainly by a loss of cotton area to grains and oilseeds. World cotton mill use is projected lower for the first time in almost a decade, by 6%, due to a slow-down in global economic growth. World stocks are expected to decline by 3% in 2008/09. However, the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) is projected to increase, which could translate into a lower season-average Cotlook A Index according to the ICAC Price Model. Furthermore, a decline in consumer purchasing power in developed economies, the evaporation of global financial wealth, tighter credit conditions and generalized uncertainty might push cotton prices further down.