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Impact of the Atlantic warm pool on United States landfalling hurricanes

机译:大西洋暖池对美国登陆飓风的影响

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摘要

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, but no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, raising a question of what dictated the hurricane track. Here we use observations from 1970-2010 (also extending back to 1950) and numerical model experiments to show that the Atlantic warm pool (AWP)-a large body of warm water comprised of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic-plays an important role in the hurricane track. An eastward expansion of the AWP shifts the hurricane genesis location eastward, decreasing the possibility for a hurricane to make landfall. A large AWP also induces barotropic stationary wave patterns that weaken the North Atlantic subtropical high and produce the eastward steering flow anomalies along the eastern seaboard of the United States. Due to these two mechanisms, hurricanes are steered toward the northeast without making landfall in the United States. Although the La Nia event in the Pacific may be associated with the increased number of Atlantic hurricanes, its relationship with landfalling activity has been offset in 2010 by the effect of the extremely large AWP.
机译:2010年的大西洋飓风季节非常活跃,但是没有飓风在美国登陆,这引发了人们对飓风轨道的决定性问题。在这里,我们使用1970-2010年的观测结果(还可以追溯到1950年)和数值模型实验来表明,大西洋暖池(AWP)是由墨西哥湾,加勒比海和西部热带地区组成的大量暖水北大西洋在飓风轨道中起着重要作用。 AWP的东扩将飓风的发生地点向东移动,从而降低了飓风登陆的可能性。较大的AWP还会诱发正压平稳波型,从而削弱北大西洋副热带高压并沿美国东部沿海地区产生向东的转向流异常。由于这两种机制,飓风被引向东北,而没有登陆美国。尽管太平洋的拉尼亚事件可能与大西洋飓风数量的增加有关,但其与登陆活动的关系在2010年因超大型AWP的影响而被抵消。

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