Development of the Lumber Demand Prediction Model

摘要

This study compared the accuracy of partial multivariate and vector autoregressive models for lumber demand prediction in Korea. The partial multivariate model has three explanatory variables; own price, construction permit area and dummy. The dummy variable reflected the boom of lumber demand in 1988, and the abrupt decrease in 1998. The VAR model consists of two endogenous variables, lumber demand and construction permit area with one lag. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy was estimated byRoot Mean Squared Error. The results showed that the estimation by partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model showed similar explanatory power, and the prediction accuracy was similar in the case of using partial multivariate and vector autoregressive model.