Is there a link between geomagnetic reversal frequency and paleointensity? A Bayesian approach

摘要

Over the last 25 years, several studies have tested for a link between geomagnetic field intensity and reversal frequency. However, despite a large increase in the number of absolute paleointensity determinations, and improved methods for obtaining such data, two competing models have arisen. Here we employ a new tool for objectively analyzing paleomagnetic time series to investigate the possibility of a link between reversal frequency and paleointensity. Transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are applied to a quality-filtered version of the global paleointensity (PINT) database for the last 202 Myr to model long-term paleointensity behavior. A large ensemble of models is sampled, from which a final representative mean model is extracted. The resulting paleointensity model confirms published conclusions that the single-silicate crystal method gives significantly different results from more conventional whole rock paleointensity methods; this makes it difficult to jointly model the two data types in the same analysis. When the much larger whole rock data set is considered, a stable paleointensity of 5.46±0.28 × 10~(22) A/m~2 for the last 202 Myr is consistent with the 95% confidence interval of the paleointensity model. Statistical tests indicate no significant correlation between reversal frequency and field intensity at the 0.05 level. However, this result is likely due to the characteristics of the PINT database rather than being a genuine, physically representative conclusion. Given the paucity of data and general state of the global paleointensity database, concerted efforts to increase the number of high-quality, well-dated paleointensity data are required before conclusions about a link between geomagnetic field intensity and reversal frequency can be confidently drawn.