Snow instability patterns at the scale of a small basin

摘要

Spatial and temporal variations are inherent characteristics of the alpine snow cover. Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to control the avalanche release probability by either hindering extensive crack propagation or facilitating localized failure initiation. Though a link between spatial snow instability variations and meteorological forcing is anticipated, it has not been quantitatively shown yet. We recorded snow penetration resistance profiles with the snow micropenetrometer at an alpine field site during five field campaigns in Eastern Switzerland. For each of about 150 vertical profiles sampled per day a failure initiation criterion and the critical crack length were calculated. For both criteria we analyzed their spatial structure and predicted snow instability in the basin by external drift kriging. The regression models were based on terrain and snow depth data. Slope aspect was the most prominent driver, but significant covariates varied depending on the situation. Residual autocorrelation ranges were shorter than the ones of the terrain suggesting external influences possibly due to meteorological forcing. To explore the causes of the instability patterns we repeated the geostatistical analysis with snow cover model output as covariate data for one case. The observed variations of snow instability were related to variations in slab layer properties which were caused by preferential deposition of precipitation and differences in energy input at the snow surface during the formation period of the slab layers. Our results suggest that 3-D snow cover modeling allows reproducing some of the snow property variations related to snow instability, but in future work all relevant micrometeorological spatial interactions should be considered.