Structural reform, intra-regional trade, and medium-term growth prospects of East Asia and the Pacific—Perspectives from a new multi-region model

摘要

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives' Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP, These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.