THE 2007 PRE-BUY NO '02 DEJA VU? Different market conditions, better technical understanding and federal action likely to dampen emissions-driven pre-buy

摘要

A factor that seems likely to limit a pre-buy of heavy-duty trucks in advance of the new emissions regulations taking effect in 2007 can be seen in truck plants such as International's in Chatham, Ontario (left), and Volvo Trucks North America's New River Valley Plant in North Carolina. The pace of production has been - and is expected to remain - so robust, that manufacturing and supply constraints could limit how much additional production could be accommodated for a pre-buy. The scenario is eerily familiar. There are aggressive new engine emissions regulations slated to kick in that will reduce NO{SUB}X emissions by more than 50% and cut particulate emissions by more than 90%. To meet them, truck and engine manufacturers are integrating new - what some consider unproven - technologies into their products that are likely to have a significant impact on purchase, operating and maintenance costs.