In order for the Brazilian sugar cane ethanol industry to retain a 45% stake in the fuels market for non-thesel passenger vehicles, the South American nation must boost its ethanol output by 80% within the next five years, according to Archer Consulting. The nation must harvest 900MM mt/y by 2016 of sugar cane for biofuel production, which is above the current crop forecasts, in order to retain the 45% share. Recently, Canaplan reduced its estimates for the sugar cane harvest by 8.5% to 476MM mt/y and its forecast for ethanol output by 5.3% to 19.7B L (124MM bbl). Industry assoc. UNICA estimates ethanol production for the current season to be 21BL(132MM bbl).
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