BP vs Exxon vs IEA: How the Forecasts Stack Up

摘要

BP, Exxon Mobil and the International Energy Agency (IEA) all agree: Natural gas, renewables, nuclear and energy efficiency will make the world dramatically less energy- and carbon-intensive in the decades to come. But they also agree that, on the current trajectory, that won't be enough to limit temperature increases to the 2°C required to prevent catastrophic global warming. Scenarios outlined in their latest long-term energy outlooks would lead to 36 billion-39 billion tons of energy-related C02 emissions by 2040, marginally more than today's 32 billion tons, but double the 19 billion tons the IEA sees as necessary in its 2°C-compliant 450 scenario.