Modelling the transmission of Echinococcus granulosus in dogs in the northwest and in the southwest of Morocco

摘要

Echinococcus granulosus (E. granulosus) infection was studied in 151 dogs in two regions of Morocco: 68 dogs in the northwest (Loukkos) and 83 dogs in the southwest (Tiznit). The mean prevalence rates of echinococcosis in dogs were 58.82% (46.23-70.63%) in Loukkos and 55.42% (44.10-66.34%) in Tiznit and the mean abundances of E. granulosus per dog were 75 (59-93) and 547 (504-595), respectively. The mean abundance of E. granulosus in dogs was fitted to a negative binomial distribution by the maximum likelihood techniques to define parameters. E. granulosus was aggregated in dogs in the two regions. The prevalence of infection and the abundance of E. granulosus in dogs were fitted to mathematical models in order to determine if the parasite population is partly regulated by definitive host immunity. The best fit was obtained with the models assuming the presence of immunity. The mean time of exposure to infection was similar in the two regions and ranged from 8 months to about 2 years. The infection pressures (number of E. granulosus) obtained per dog each year were 65 (8-294) in Loukkos and 476 (316-886) in Tiznit. The proportion of dogs susceptible to infection was still high along the life of the dogs in Loukkos, while it was not different from zero in old dogs of Tiznit.