Supply response to risk: the case of cereal sector in the North of Tunisia

摘要

This article tries to determine the effect of changes in the production of cereal's acreage decisions of farmers. An acreage supply response model is developed for durum wheat, soft wheat and barley for the North of Tunisia. The risk variable is incorporated in the model a long differents specifications. The relative unexpected variability in yields in the preceding year, is shown to be a good approximation for the variable risk. The empirical results indicate that risk play an important role in wheat-barley acreage decisions and that soft wheat and barley are more responsive to change in risk than durum wheat. The analysis show also that risk reduction constitues a priority for government to stimulate production and to reduce consequently imports of cereals production.