'AmanGrow': A simulation model based on weather parameters for predicting transplanted 'Aman rice' production in Bangladesh

摘要

Crop yields fluctuate considerably from year to year a fact attributable to the variation in environmental conditions. Uncertainty in weather is the most challenging for agricultural production. The need for pre-harvest forecasting of crop yields needhardly be emphasized. Crop models that use weather data in simulating crop yields have the potential for being used to assess the risk of producing a given crop with anticipated targets in a particular environment and assist in formulating management decisions and contingency planning. The agricultural economy of Bangladesh is closely linked with the rainfall received during the summer season (March-August). The two rainfed rices grown during this period are 'Aus' (kharif 1: April to July) and 'Aman' (kharif 2 : July to October). The cultivated area during 'Aman' season is about 14.2 million acres, about 71 % of the yearly total rice cultivated area (BBS 1996). Considering its area of coverage and contribution to total national rice production a simulation model has been developed to predict the transplanted 'Aman' production based on selected weather parameters.