Policy options for the diffusion orbit of competitive innovations - an application of Lotka-Volterra equations to Japan's transition from analog to digital TV broadcasting

摘要

Timely introduction of emerging new technologies that substitute for existing technologies is essential for enhancing a nation's international competitiveness in a globalizing economy. However, such substitution is generally slow because of a lack of information about new technologies, fear of substitution and a reluctance to pay the cost of switching to new technologies. While hasty substitution sometimes accomplishes nothing, delayed substitution can result in a loss of national competitiveness. Thus, policy options for the diffusion orbits of competitive innovations are crucial. This is particularly the case with respect to Japan's transition from analog to digital TV broadcasting, as the Japanese government, in order to minimize the impact of a transition delay, is urging a rapid shift from analog to digital TV broadcasting. In an ecosystem, in order to maintain sustainable development, predator-prey systems demonstrate a sophisticated balance. Given that an ecosystem can be used as a masterpiece system. this sophisticated balance provides suggestive ideas in deciding an optimal orbit of competitive innovations. This paper analyzes the optimal orbit for Japan's transition from analog to digital TV broadcasting, and on the basis of an Application of Lotka - Volterra equations that analyze the sophisticated balance of predator-prey systems, it demonstrates the optimality of the Japanese government's scenario for shifting from analog to digital TV broadcasting.