Labor supply prospects in 16 developed countries, 2000-2050

摘要

In most advanced countries for the past 25-30 years, fertility rates have been below the level that leads to replacement of one generation by the next. In the same period, mortality rates have also fallen sharply. The wellknown consequence of this combination is rapid aging of the population. The rate of aging will step up a gear in the next 30 years as the exceptionally large post-World War II birth cohorts (the "baby boom" generation in Western countries) enter the older ages. A common concern isthat a future labor force may not be able to support the rapidly growing elderly population. Population aging is a relative concept and its severity is measured by relative indicators, such as the ratio of the number of retired elderly persons to the size of the labor force. Considerable attention has been directed to the policy implications of aging, a recent example being the OECD's (1998) publication Maintaining Prosperity in an Ageing Society. Much less attention, however, has focused on another outcome of sustained low fertility. As we show below, most advanced countries will face either stagnation or a fall in the absolute size of the labor force if current demographic and labor force trends continue.