A simulation based approach to assess the safety performance of road locations

摘要

This paper outlines the development of a simulation modelling approach to assess the safety performance of roads. Researchers have used statistical analysis, numerical modelling using Newtonian Mechanics, and micro simulation models to assess roads safety performance. In this study, these three methods are combined to improve the assessment of safety at road locations compared to previous works. Micro simulation forms the basis of the framework while statistical and numerical models using Newtonian Mechanics are the other models utilised and embedded into the micro simulation model. The input into the micro simulation model is general traffic conditions and its output is a measure of road safety performance. The framework consists of two main components. The first component is associated to the estimation of the number and severity of conflicts from general traffic flow inputs. The second component is an estimation of the expected injury severity of individuals, involving in the conflict, should the simulated conflict lead to a crash. The Australian Crash In-Depth Study (ANCIS) database is used to estimate the statistical and numerical model parameters. The modelling framework is applied to an intersection in Melbourne, Australia and its associated safety performance results are discussed.