Three senses of paradigm in scenario methodology: A preliminary framework and systematic approach for using intuitive logics scenarios to change mental models and improve strategic decision-making in situations of discontinuity

摘要

This article outlines the objectives, activities, and achievements of using intuitive logics scenarios to improve strategic decision-making in situations of discontinuity. Pierre Wack's work at Royal Dutch/Shell illustrates the use of exploratory, reframing, and decision scenarios to change the mental models of decision-makers in advance of the 1973 oil crisis. Thomas S. Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions offers a promising theoretical account of paradigm shifts in science, but its application is limited by the ambiguity of the concept of paradigm. Margaret Masterman's distinction of three senses of paradigm - introduced as construct paradigm, worldview paradigm, and action paradigm - clarifies and extends these accounts to support a preliminary framework and systematic approach. Overall, this investigation expands our understanding of strategic decision-making as guided not only by analytic achievements and developmental investigations but also by discontinuous breaks that can be explored and addressed using scenario methodology.Section 1 provides an introduction and literature review. Section 2 examines the scenarios developed at Royal Dutch/Shell. Section 3 summarizes Kuhn's new image of science, clarified by Masterman's three senses of paradigm in Section 4. Section 5 presents implications for scenario methodology, followed by conclusions and areas for research in Section 6.