Driving alone versus riding together - How shared autonomous vehicles can change the way we drive

摘要

This paper builds on the work presented by the authors at the 2015 AITPM National Conference. The focus of the new work has been researching the likely uptake rates for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and building a model which determines what percentage of the fleet will be fully AV by a certain year. In addition to this we have also added extra capability to the model which allows us to address the issue of shared autonomous vehicles which we have not done before. Both single-occupant and multi-occupant shared AVs will reduce overall car ownership and also parking requirements. The behavioural impacts for shared AVs are uncertain - we have assumed that people make choices based on the marginal cost of travel. The higher marginal costs felt by users of a shared AV service lead to lower car demand; more public and active transport; and less congestion. We also believe that multi-occupant shared AVs could significantly increase the efficiency of our networks. All of these issues, as well as potential safety implications, are explored in our paper using TransPosition's 4S Model.