Relationship between flood/drought disasters and ENSO from 1857 to 2003 in the Taihu Lake basin, China

摘要

In this paper, the relationship between flood/drought change in the Taihu Lake basin (TLB) and ENSO is investigated based on reconstructed flood/drought rank series (FD) and NINO-3.4 SST (DJF) data from 1857 to 2003. With the aid of empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method, the paper reveals that FD series and ENSO both contain strong inter-annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial signals, and have quite similar periodicities. The EMD method also obtains a monotonic trend for both series: the trend of FD series is upward, which suggests that flood trend is significant, and the trend of NINO-3.4 SST is also upward showing an increase of El Nino events. Continuous wavelet transform obtains similar oscillations for FD and NINO-3.4 SST series with those of EMD method. The results of cross wavelet and wavelet coherence suggest that there was stable in-phase relation between FD and NINO-3.4 SST from 1857 to 1950s, while this in-phase relation is not clear during recent decades. This conclusion is also verified by χ~2 test. These findings indicate weakening linkage between ENSO and flood/drought disasters in the TLB, which must be taken into account in the prediction of flood and drought disasters in the study area.