Capacity Curve

摘要

The U.S. gross domestic product grew at an 8.2 percent annual rate during third-quarter 2003, a full percentage point higher than forecasters expected. In November, economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded for the fifth-straight month, and at the fastest rate in two decades. The Consumer Confidence Index registered a 10-point increase last month, prompting pundits to predict (and politicians to chant): "The economy's back." Maybe it is. But November's batch of economic news is grain-of-salt stuff for many rail execs. They've heard "the recovery's coming" rumblings off and on during the past three years ― predictions that proved more rosy than real. Nevertheless, even the most cautious and/or cynical of railroaders might be hard-pressed to dismiss what appears at least to be the potential for near-term growth, particularly in the intermodal arena. Through 2003's first 47 weeks, intermodal traffic was up 6.7 percent compared with the same 2002 stretch. Sometime this month or early next, intermodal will surpass coal as the industry's No. 1 revenue generator, says Association of American Railroads President and Chief Executive Officer Ed Hamberger. And it'll be No. 1 with a bullet: More freight will shift from truck to rail-truck intermodal next year, thanks in part to new truck hours-of-service regulations that take effect Ian. 4. The new regs will reduce truck capacity and increase truck rates, trucking industry analysts say. "They're talking about anywhere from a 6 percent to 20 percent decrease in productivity," says CSX Corp. Chairman, President and CEO Michael Ward, and CSX Transportation's president and chief operating officer. "That affords us a better opportunity, as an industry, to really grow the business."