Debt sustainability in the EU New Member States: empirical evidence from a panel of eight Central and East European countries

摘要

This article aims to assess the sustainability of fiscal policies in a panel of eight EU New Member States, namely Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. First, using panel data unit-root tests, econometric findings show that the variables public expenditure and revenue are not stationary. However, employing panel cointegration tests, it is found that government spending and revenue are cointegrated. This implies that fiscal policies in these countries are sustainable in the long run, i.e. they are consistent with inter-temporal budget balance in accordance with the present-value approach. Finally, these results are confirmed if we exclude the countries with sound public finances, namely the three Baltic States and Slovenia: we obtain the same conclusion with a panel comprising Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and the Slovak Republic.