Spatial pattern and determinants of migrant workers' interprovincial hukou transfer intention in China: Evidence from a National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey in 2016

摘要

Using 2016 data from the National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring, this article establishes a relationship network to describe migrant workers' interprovincial hukou transfer intention in China. Spatial analysis methods and the eigenvector spatial filtering gravity model are employed to examine the spatial pattern and determinants of the hukou transfer intention network. The results show that (a) most interprovincial migrant workers in China are less educated, middle aged, with middle- or low-income levels, and job oriented, and their average interprovincial hukou transfer intention is 0.361; (b) there is significant network autocorrelation in the intention network, which presents a clustered and unbalanced spatial pattern where higher ranking intention flows from relatively less developed regions to more developed megacities; (c) provinces' hukou attractiveness to migrant workers demonstrates a random spatial pattern, but the hukou exclusion patterns are spatially concentrated: The north-east provinces are hotspots, whereas several central and north-east provinces are cold spots; (d) among geographical factors, distance exerts a negative influence on migrant workers' hukou transfer intention, whereas population size does not matter at origin or destination. Socio-economic factors, especially disposable income, play the most significant role in impacting migrant workers' hukou transfer intention; and (e) as for individual factors, migrant workers' interprovincial migration is an economic decision based on family development: Those with more children, higher ratios of income to cost, or higher education levels are reluctant to transfer their hukous. Besides, the job and housing conditions of migrant workers are also closely related to their hukou transfer intentions.