The Nuclear Cage: Path Dependencies in Fission and Fusion Innovation

摘要

1. Global nuclear generation is falling, due to a combination of closures outpacing new build and the low costs/ease of deployment of fossil fuels. 2. Limited work has been done on path dependencies acting as barriers for nuclear innovation, with many starting, with hindsight, from small historical events such as minor accidents or political issues. 3. Nuclear fusion represents one of the largest scientific and engineering challenges in energy, promising clean, safe and virtually limitless energy by promising the creation of a 'star on Earth'. As fusion is in the nascent stages of its journey towards commercialisation the implications of path dependency are significant. 4. As technologies mature by virtue of increasing returns uncertainties inevitably decrease as the technology becomes more widely adopted, which further aids the entrenchment of a particular technology. 5. The flagship ITER/EU DEMO project demonstrates the characteristics of increasing returns. The development pathway is vulnerable to the effects of premature lock-in. Nuclear innovation, whether around fusion or fission, experiences the effects of path dependence and lock-in, so its causes and effects must be understood by regulators, policymakers and developers alike.