PRAGMATIC APPROACHES FOR WATER MANAGEMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY

摘要

Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydro-logical practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of "robust decision making," coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.