INTERTEMPORAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY BASED ON NATIONAL ACCOUNTS DEAGGREGATION

摘要

The paper describes a three-product intertemporal general equilibrium model of the Russian economy. The System Analysis of Evolving Economy (SAEE) approach to modelling economic processes developed in 1975 is described. Based on SAEE Intertemporal Equilibrium Model with Control of Capital (IEMCC) and three-product nonlinear deaggregation of Russian national accounts by consumption are described. The model agents of two types are introduced: mass (rational) and individual (scenario) agents. The former type includes Bank, Producer, Household, Owner, and Trader. The latter type includes State, Central Bank, Exporter, and Importer. The model is reduced to a boundary-value problem for a significantly nonlinear system of equations. These equations are derived from the initial hypothesis by means of the original economic modelling assistance system ECOMOD which is developed in the computer algebra system MAPLE. The model is adjusted with respect to official statistical quarterly data from 2004 till 2010. The calculation results are provided. The model proves the ability to model the Russian economy as a result of interactions of rational and individual macroeconomic agents.