Has the opening of high-speed rail reduced urban carbon emissions? Empirical analysis based on panel data of cities in China

摘要

"Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" is one of the important tasks of China's current and future economic construction and development, but the carbon emission reduction effect of High-speed rail (HSR) has not yet been fully studied. In this paper, based on the panel data of 274 cities in China from 2003 to 2016, we take the opening of HSR in the cities as a "Quasi-natural Experiment", and construct the Multi-period Difference-in-Difference Model to explore whether the opening of HSR can reduce carbon emissions of cities along the route, and use the mediating effect model and moderating effect model to further analyze its internal mechanisms. We find that: (1) The opening of HSR can significantly reduce the carbon emissions of cities along the route, and the opening of HSR in a city will reduce the carbon emissions of the city by about 2.4% on average, and this carbon emission reduction effect usually manifests significantly in the first year after the opening of HSR, and increases year by year thereafter. (2) The mechanism test shows that the traffic substitution effect, the optimization of the industrial structure and the promotion of economic agglomeration have partial mediating effect on the influence between the opening of HSR and urban carbon emissions. In addition, the increase in the intensity of government environmental regulations can strengthen the effect of the opening of HSR on reducing urban carbon emissions. (3)The regional heterogeneity research shows that the opening of HSR has a more significant impact on the carbon emissions of cities in the eastern coastal region and western region of China. Moreover, in the western region, the reduction effect of the opening of HSR on carbon emissions is only reflected in the key cities rather than ordinary prefecture-level cities. This paper provides certain reference significance for promoting low-carbon and green economy and helping China to achieve the "Carbon Neutrality" climate action goal.