Household Electricity Demand Forecast Based on Context Information and User Daily Schedule Analysis From Meter Data

摘要

The very short-term load forecasting (VSTLF) problem is of particular interest for use in smart grid and automated demand response applications. An effective solution for VSTLF can facilitate real-time electricity deployment and improve its quality. In this paper, a novel approach to model the very short-term load of individual households based on context information and daily schedule pattern analysis is proposed. Several daily behavior pattern types were obtained by analyzing the time series of daily electricity consumption, and context features from various sources were collected and used to establish a rule set for use in anticipating the likely behavior pattern type of a specific day. Meanwhile, an electricity consumption volume prediction model was developed for each behavior pattern type to predict the load at a specific time point in a day. This study was concerned with solving the VSTLF for individual households in Taiwan. The proposed approach obtained an average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.23% and 2.44% for forecasting individual household load and aggregation load 30-min ahead, respectively, which is more favorable than other methods.