DEMAND FORECASTING METHOD, DEMAND FORECASTING ANALYSIS SERVER, AND DEMAND FORECASTING PROGRAM

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a demand forecasting analysis server for accurate understanding of product demand at a certain time point in the future.;SOLUTION: The demand forecasting analysis server for forecasting demand for an assembly product is provided with: a parameter generation process 31 which associates a record of estimation operation for an assembly product by an orderer with a record of order operation for the assembly product by the orderer, and calculates parameters of order probability for the estimation operation and order time delay from the result of the association processing; and a forecasting process 32 for forecasting the number of assembly products to be ordered resulting from the estimation operation and a period therefor or the number of assembly products to be shipped and a period therefor as the estimation operation results in an order on the basis of the estimation operation for the assembly product by the orderer and the parameters. The demand forecasting analysis server uses achievements of past order by the orderer and the result of past demand forecast, calculates forecast accuracy for a component of the assembly product, compares the forecast accuracy with a predetermined threshold, and eliminates a component for which the forecast accuracy is below the threshold from object components at prediction by the forecasting process 32.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT